Usually, late February is a time when outbreaks of frigid air still regularly plunge into the Lower 48 out of Canada’s tundra. This year, waves of unusually mild weather will occupy this territory instead.
The prevailing warmth is the story of winter in the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. Nearly the entire contiguous United States is running warmer than average, boosted by warm oceans, the El Niño climate pattern and human-caused climate change. Much of Canada is also exceptionally mild, with many cities poised to notch their warmest winter on record.
Some cold air hovers over the northern and central United States after a fleeting shot of wintry weather late this week. But that will get squeezed out as the weekend progresses. Much warmer than normal air is poised to close out February, then stick around in March, which marks the beginning of climatological spring (that runs through May).
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The looming pulse of warmth for the time of year will help cement the warmest climatological winter (defined as December through February) on record for many cities in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.
Lots of warmth ahead, east of the Rockies
Earlier this week, we documented what a “lost winter” looks like in the Midwest and surrounding areas.
As if nature responded to the taunt, cold air punched southward and more than half a foot of snow blanketed Minneapolis, doubling its seasonal total. A reinforcing shot of cold air is sweeping southeastward on its heels, and also producing a strip of accumulating snow from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. This pinch of winter will be short-lived, peaking Friday and Saturday before temperatures begin to quickly moderate.
Warmer-than-normal weather is set to return to the north-central United States and Midwest by Sunday and expand and become more pronounced with time.
Once the short cool-down relents, forecast models predict substantially above-average temperatures in most of the places that have seen exceptionally mild weather for much of the winter.
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The simulation from the European computer model (above) illustrates the idea well. Daily temperatures are projected to be some 20 to 30 degrees or more above normal from Canada’s Northwest Territories into the northern United States. Over an even broader swath of real estate — from the western Plains to the East Coast — temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 20 degrees above normal to end the month.
How mild are we talking? Here’s what models project over the next two weeks:
- Minneapolis should see highs mostly in the 40s and sometimes in the 50s. Its normal high is in the low 30s.
- Chicago and Detroit should see highs frequently near 50 and sometimes flirting with 60. Its normal high is near 40.
- Wausau, Wis., should see highs frequently near 40 and occasionally flirting with 50. Its normal high is in the upper 20s.
Cities will soon clinch warmest winter on record
Using an average of weather model forecasts through the end of February, we can project what cities will clinch their warmest climatological winter on record:
- International Falls, Minn. — Its average temperature of 21.3 degrees would surpass 1997-1998’s 19.8 degrees. Notably, that winter was also a strong to very strong El Niño.
- Fargo, N.D. — Its average temperature of 26.5 degrees would surpass 2011-2012’s and 1986-1987’s 22.1 degrees.
- Sault Ste Marie, Mich. — Its average temperature of 27.0 degrees would surpass 2001-2002’s 25.6 degrees.
- Minneapolis — Its average temperature of 29.7 degrees would surpass 1877-1878’s 29 degrees. At that time, readings were taken in downtown St. Paul, versus the airport today.
- Green Bay, Wis. — Its average temperature of 30.6 degrees would surpass 2001-2002’s 27.6 degrees.
- Burlington, Vt. — Its average temperature of 30.9 degrees would surpass 2015-2016’s 30.1 degrees. That winter was also a strong El Niño.
Many other locations will join the list highlighted here. The presence of El Niño is a common thread among the warmest winters on record in many Midwest locations but the temperatures this year are substantially higher than previous El Niños in most instances.
As human-caused climate change pushes temperatures higher, this winter’s warmth is a preview of what’s to come in a warming world.
Jason Samenow contributed to this report.
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